If there's an exodus of five more Big 12 schools, the five remaining
would be wise to remain together, according to a conference commissioner
with experience dealing with expansion.
The reason is simple: The five remaining schools -- Kansas, Kansas
State, Missouri, Baylor and Iowa State -- would be due a huge payday and
ultimately could salvage automatic berths to the NCAA tournament and
possibly the BCS through expansion themselves.
The commissioner, who didn’t want to be identified because he’s
involved in the ongoing realignment of college athletics, said it would
be critical for the leftover schools to maintain the Big 12 as an entity
or corporation.
“The assets, the amount of money that they would be due by exit fees
back to the corporation would be huge,’’ said the commissioner. “Rather
than dissolve the Big 12, they are better off as a Big 12 entity then
moving to the Mountain West.’’
Colorado was the first to bolt the Big 12 last week, becoming the
Pac-10’s 11th member. Nebraska followed later in the week to become the
Big Ten’s 12th member. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and
Texas A&M are all mulling a potential offer to join the Pac-10 to
form the Pac-16. A&M is also contemplating applying to become the
SEC’s 13th member.
But all of them aren’t ruling out staying in the Big 12 with the
aforementioned five schools for a 10-team league. According to industry
and network sources, that 10-team league would have more television
value then a Pac-11 or Pac-12 (with Utah as the 12th).
Regardless, the commissioner said the most likely remaining Big 12
schools could be due millions from each departing member, depending on
how the legal side of each school works out the exit fees. The fee
percentages change if the school gives a two-year notice or a one-year
notice. Nebraska and Colorado are expected to join their new conferences
for the fall of 2011.
NCAA tournament appearance shares are paid going forward but stay
with the conference if there is a change of membership. Schools don’t
depart with that money, as was the case when three Big East schools left
for the ACC several years ago.
Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State and Baylor have so far
appear to be ready to stay together. But that’s still a fluid situation
and each member institution will still look for its best alternative if
the other five depart -- especially Kansas, which would be the most
marketable to a power conference. A Kansas official told ESPN.com it has
no plans on going to the Mountain West Conference and men’s basketball
coach Bill Self has gone on record that the Jayhawks will be in a BCS
conference.
Meanwhile, the commissioner said that new Pac-10 commissioner Larry
Scott is taking a gamble if he doesn’t come back with Texas in an
expansion model. If Scott is rebuffed by the Longhorns and thus by the
rest of the Big 12 South schools and is forced to then just take Utah
for the 12th member, it would be a major disappointment.
Industry sources say that a Pac-12 that just adds Colorado and Utah
doesn’t increase the value that much for the league in a traditional
model of seeking a new television deal. The best-case scenario for the
Pac-10 is to come home with Texas, a Pac-16 and a new television network
that would rival the Big Ten Network.
By the way, all 31 conference commissioners -- including Scott, the
Big Ten’s Jim Delany and the Big 12’s Dan Beebe -- are scheduled to be
in Half Moon Bay, Calif., on Monday night for the start of the
Collegiate Commissioners Association’s annual meetings. The three-day
meetings are sure to be interesting if the conference expansion moves
are made mid-week in the middle of the meetings.