Sparks
flew in the electric-car market last week, capped off Friday by
President Obama's short test drive of a Chevy Volt while visiting a
General Motors plant in Michigan.Obama's visit came as GM and
Nissan OTCBB:NSANY race to the finish line. GM's hybrid plug-in Volt
and Nissan's all-electric Leaf are expected to hit select U.S.
showrooms later this year.
They're leading the vanguard of a new
generation of electric cars aimed at a relatively broad consumer
market. Plug-ins from Ford (NYSE:
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News), Toyota (NYSE:
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News), Honda (NYSE:
HMC -
News), Chrysler, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are expected to follow starting in 2012.
"We
believe within three years every auto manufacturer will have at least
one plug-in vehicle," said Mark Duvall, director of electric
transportation for the Electric Power Research Institute.
As
Nissan and GM unveiled new pricing and other details on their EVs
earlier in the week, suppliers of battery chargers and other related
gear flooded a "2010 Plug-In" conference in San Jose, Calif.
"Probably
a quarter of the exhibitors were (companies) you've never heard of who
came out of the woodwork with electric car chargers," said John O'Dell,
editor of Green Car Advisor, part of auto site Edmunds.com.
Two
leading charging suppliers are Coulomb Technologies and Ecotality
(SCM:ECTY), the latter a small-cap that listed on the Nasdaq in May.
Nissan's Leaf has a 100-mile range on a full charge; it has no tailpipe and zero emissions.
The
Volt's 400-pound battery can power up to 40 miles of driving. It's
backed with a small gas engine that can bring the total range to 340
miles. Obama proclaimed his 10-foot-long test run "smooth."
Obama has said he would like to see 1 million electric vehicles on the roads by 2015. But that may be a steep hill to climb.
Duvall says the president's goal may be achievable and if so "would establish the technology firmly in the market."
But
even the popular Prius hybrid from Toyota has logged fewer sales than
that in the U.S. — 900,000 — over the entire 10 years the model has
been on the market.
And though analysts see EV demand outstripping supply, that's largely because carmakers are moving slowly.
GM
plans to roll out only 10,000 Volts in the first year. On Friday, it
raised its planned 2012 production from 30,000 to 45,000.
Nissan
says it'll start selling Leafs in California, Washington, Oregon,
Arizona and Tennessee this year, with more states in 2011. The Leaf has
a waiting list of 17,000. Nissan will sell 500 Leafs to rental-car
company Enterprise.
"It will be a long, slow ramp up," said Philip Gott, managing director of IHS Automotive Consulting.
Gott
doesn't expect a significant EV market in the U.S. for at least a
decade. He estimates pure electric cars sold in the U.S. will go from
just 30,000 in 2011 to 135,000-140,000 in 2016. That's a tiny fraction
of the 12 million cars that came off U.S. assembly lines last year — or
the industry's heyday of 16 million.
EV Sticker Shock
GM
announced last week it would list the Volt at $41,000. The Leaf will
sell for around $33,000. Neither price includes a $7,500 federal tax
credit. Further credits from some states such as California would make
the final tally even less.
Still, low-emission, high miles per gallon conventional cars have smaller sticker prices.
Leasing
plans make the EVs more widely affordable. GM said it would lease the
Volt for as low as $350 a month with $2,500 down, roughly matching
Leaf's offer. Nissan says the Leaf would match the Volt's eight-year or
100,000-mile lithium-ion battery pack warranty.
While electric
power is about a quarter of the cost of gas per mile, Duvall says EV
makers' big challenge will be to cut upfront costs so that the
long-term expense to own and operate will be less than for regular
cars. "That can happen in as little as five years, but more likely in
10 years," he said. "The first year for a new car design is always the
most expensive, but it's worst for the Leaf and Volt because they have
the new technology."
He added, "Over time, (carmakers) will learn
how to do this more cost effectively and you will see the cost of the
cars come down."
Let's Make Money, Eventually
Lower
input costs and higher sales would mean that plug-ins would go from
money losers for automakers to profit makers, analysts say. How long
that will take is unclear.
California-based electric car maker
Tesla Motors (NMS:TSLA), which went public in June, has sold over 1,000
Roadsters worldwide since 2008, each costing over $100,000. It has yet
to make a profit. A Model S sedan for about half that price after tax
rebates is slated for a 2012 launch.
A few carmakers tried electric cars in the 1990s, most notably GM with its EV1.
But they never gained much traction due in part to limited battery power — and cheap gas. GM discontinued the EV1 in 2002.
"What
you have today is a confluence of technology development meeting the
recognition of a need at some point in the near future to reduce our
carbon emissions," Gott said.
By 2030, Gott says, electric cars, including hybrid plug-ins like the Volt, could make up 20% to 30% of the global auto market.
In
Europe, Renault will soon release the Fluence EV sedan and a tiny EV
two-seater called the Tweazy. BMW already sells the E-Mini.
Japan
has an aggressive campaign to expand EVs, especially taxis. China still
has relatively few EVs; the government is "dabbling" in EV
infrastructure investments, says Michael Robinet, vice president at
market researcher CSM Worldwide.
"If China decided electric is
the preferred mode, it could make a tremendous impact on the rest of
the world," he said. "I think it will be something in the middle, a
mixture between gas and battery."
Cracking The Electric Egg
To
address the "chicken and egg" issue in the U.S. — selling electric cars
before enough chargers are around to keep them going — government
incentives are fueling development of battery stations in several
regions coast to coast.
Charging stations are going in parking
lots and outside government agencies, apartment complexes, grocery
stores and other retail spots.
These "opportunity chargers" are
meant for top-offs rather than full-blown charges, most of the latter
likely to be done at home using common 120-volt household outlets. With
a 220-volt, the charge time is cut from eight hours to four.
Some
retailers are starting to put chargers outside their stores, including
Whole Foods' (NMS:WFMI) flagship in Austin, Texas, and the South Coast
Plaza mall in Costa Mesa, Calif.
"The fact chargers will be out
in large numbers in various regions diminishes range anxiety" — the
fear of being stuck on the road without any power, said O'Dell.
The rapper/actor and the Gossip Girl star were both due to walk the red
carpet in New York City for the launch of their film, Twelve, but fans
were left waiting after the cast got stuck in traffic as police shut
off the surrounding streets to make way for the U.S. president.
There’s
always a good Justin Bieber rumor to keep everyone on their toes.
Tonight’s big rumor is that Justin Bieber has been smoking weed. The
rumor has circulated through the Internet and comes close to topping the
number one Justin Bieber rumor, ‘Is Justin Bieber dead?” Justin Bieber
has made headlines recently for several things. He is starring in the
season premier of CSI: Crime Scene Investigation in September and he has
been targeted by the anti-gay pseudo church Westboro Baptist.
himself
wearing an orange jumpsuit on his Twitter and referred to himself as a
bad man. For those who were unaware that Justin is acting in the hit
show, it is understandable that confusion may have set in.
Rest assured, Justin Bieber is still holding fast to his image and
hasn’t done anything to rock the boat. Apparently, the most scandalous
thing Justin has really done is flirt with Tina Fey during an SNL skit
and skipped through the waters of the Caribbean while holding Kim
Kardashian’s hand.
The
resignation this week of ABC entertainment honcho Steve McPherson was
surprising enough, but now the affair has taken an ugly turn.
BRITNEY Spears is letting her
emotions run away with her!